SUMMARY
The candidates may split up a bit in February. The evangelicals in Iowa may get a hard look at Pawlenty and perhaps Bachmann and Palin. Meanwhile the fiscal conservatives like Huntsman and Romney may downplay Iowa, or skip it entirely, breaking the hearts of hotel owners across Iowa, in their haste to go to New Hampshire and fight for the more moderate voters there. The rubber match may be South Carolina, where the survivors of the Iowa and New Hampshire voting will shamelessly woo Governor Haley and Senator DeMint, king of the teahadists. The Republicans would dearly love to go into Super Tuesday having a clearer idea of who the top one or two names will be. Click on one of three links below, if you want to jump to a particular section.
Iowa
New Hampshire
South Carolina and Nevada
Super Tuesday and beyond
DETAILS
So with Huckabee out of the race Romney leads in Iowa, as he does in New Hampshire. You would think he would want to win both and nail down the nomination right at the beginning, but so far he has shown great ambivalence to competing in the Iowa caucuses. Will Romney compete in Iowa, and if so, how energetically? This depends on at least five factors.
First, do Iowans want him there? Many Iowans do, because if Iowa attains a reputation as the caucus which is open only to wingnuts, and particularly if they give the 2012 caucus win to some circus freak who flames out in the primaries which follow, then candidates who don’t drink tea may begin skipping Iowa in future races. Romney wants to know: do the Iowans like him enough to actually vote for him when he comes? But they are asking the obverse question: why is it taking him so long to commit to truly contesting Iowa, particularly since he seems to be in the lead there? And if he seems to be fleeing the tea-drinkers in Iowa, how will tea-drinkers in other states view that?
Second, how strong are the evangelicals and tea party? There are in fact fiscal conservatives as well as social conservatives in Iowa: the split was close to 50-50 during the 2008 race, Romney ran passably there, and Iowa donors want to hear candidates talk economics too, before cracking open their wallets. The Iowa governor is more of a fiscal politician than a tea drinker (although even he questioned Romney's health care policy); he was forced to publicly assert that Iowans do indeed care about jobs and other non-social issues out there, so fiscal conservatives should come there to campaign, and social conservatives should come there ready to talk economics. But the evangelicals may have gained the upper hand, energized by the same-sex marriage controversy there and new battles over abortion. If they dominate Iowa, Romney is more likely to skip it.
Third, how united is the tea party, behind one candidate? The sooner they unite behind one pick, the worse Romney will do in Iowa. If a single candidate like Pawlenty is obviously wrapping up the Iowa vote, Romney may move on to New Hampshire, but if two evenly-matched tea-drinkers are killing each other in a fratricidal war, Romney could come in and shoot for an upset. Pawlenty called for an end to ethanol subsidies, and is still scrambling to make any headway with evangelicals; Palin has strong support in Iowa, and Rachel Maddow is one of many who expect Bachmann to do very well, but neither woman has announced.
The candidates may split up a bit in February. The evangelicals in Iowa may get a hard look at Pawlenty and perhaps Bachmann and Palin. Meanwhile the fiscal conservatives like Huntsman and Romney may downplay Iowa, or skip it entirely, breaking the hearts of hotel owners across Iowa, in their haste to go to New Hampshire and fight for the more moderate voters there. The rubber match may be South Carolina, where the survivors of the Iowa and New Hampshire voting will shamelessly woo Governor Haley and Senator DeMint, king of the teahadists. The Republicans would dearly love to go into Super Tuesday having a clearer idea of who the top one or two names will be. Click on one of three links below, if you want to jump to a particular section.
Iowa
New Hampshire
South Carolina and Nevada
Super Tuesday and beyond
DETAILS
Iowa
Iowa. A late May 2011 poll shows Romney leading with 21 percent support, followed by Palin and Cain at 15, and then Gingrich, Bachmann and Pawlenty all bunched around 10-12. Romney was weakest among men, and among the far right; Pawlenty, interestingly, does best among those who are conservative enough to hate Romney but not so conservative that they're willing to embrace a doomed purist like Bachmann. If the Iowa far-right vote was united behind one candidate, Pawlenty as the far-right candidate could compete with Romney, but Cain and the ladies could not.So with Huckabee out of the race Romney leads in Iowa, as he does in New Hampshire. You would think he would want to win both and nail down the nomination right at the beginning, but so far he has shown great ambivalence to competing in the Iowa caucuses. Will Romney compete in Iowa, and if so, how energetically? This depends on at least five factors.
First, do Iowans want him there? Many Iowans do, because if Iowa attains a reputation as the caucus which is open only to wingnuts, and particularly if they give the 2012 caucus win to some circus freak who flames out in the primaries which follow, then candidates who don’t drink tea may begin skipping Iowa in future races. Romney wants to know: do the Iowans like him enough to actually vote for him when he comes? But they are asking the obverse question: why is it taking him so long to commit to truly contesting Iowa, particularly since he seems to be in the lead there? And if he seems to be fleeing the tea-drinkers in Iowa, how will tea-drinkers in other states view that?
Second, how strong are the evangelicals and tea party? There are in fact fiscal conservatives as well as social conservatives in Iowa: the split was close to 50-50 during the 2008 race, Romney ran passably there, and Iowa donors want to hear candidates talk economics too, before cracking open their wallets. The Iowa governor is more of a fiscal politician than a tea drinker (although even he questioned Romney's health care policy); he was forced to publicly assert that Iowans do indeed care about jobs and other non-social issues out there, so fiscal conservatives should come there to campaign, and social conservatives should come there ready to talk economics. But the evangelicals may have gained the upper hand, energized by the same-sex marriage controversy there and new battles over abortion. If they dominate Iowa, Romney is more likely to skip it.
Third, how united is the tea party, behind one candidate? The sooner they unite behind one pick, the worse Romney will do in Iowa. If a single candidate like Pawlenty is obviously wrapping up the Iowa vote, Romney may move on to New Hampshire, but if two evenly-matched tea-drinkers are killing each other in a fratricidal war, Romney could come in and shoot for an upset. Pawlenty called for an end to ethanol subsidies, and is still scrambling to make any headway with evangelicals; Palin has strong support in Iowa, and Rachel Maddow is one of many who expect Bachmann to do very well, but neither woman has announced.
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