Congress and beyond

At some point the Republicans will figure out who their presidential nominee is, and realize he or she is doomed. Then they will steer their dollars toward keeping the House and taking the Senate: the Senate Class of 2006, the big Democratic wave, is up for reelection and very vulnerable. Those Congressional races: this is a key reason why the GOP’s disastrous Voter-ID push is so important.

Watch the generic congressional polls: a spring 2011 poll showed that the voters are as angry as ever at Congress, with the GOP in charge, particularly after Ryan’s disastrous Medicare attack. Seniors went big for the GOP in 2010 but will retaliate for the Medicare vote this time. But we must also watch for GOP members of Congress to leap to the right to avoid being flanked by angry teabag challengers.

In 2016 the Republicans won’t have a black target to shoot at anymore. Democrats can run no less than three potential candidates from Virginia, and two from Montana, plus Brown, O’Malley, Sebelius, Cuomo, and other governors and senators.

The tea-party insanity will of necessity subside someday, since the whole movement was built on lies, but then where will the GOP be? The GOP is becoming a regional party, and their core constituency, the oldest, whitest conservative voters, is aging off the system.