The electoral map

If the reports are accurate, the Obama team will focus mostly on hanging on to the states they won in 2008, rather than digging deeper into places like Texas and Georgia. They key battlegrounds will be the Rust Belt, where jobs, unions, the auto bailout and Medicare will be central to their strategy; the Atlantic coast, where the black vote and the Israel issue may share the spotlight with Medicare; and the southwest where Latinos want to know where the DREAM Act went. The Democrats are likely to form their strategy to beat the most dangerous opponents, the fiscal conservatives like Romney and Huntsman, which will serve to emphasize the Rust Belt even more. A vice-presidential pick could throw a wild card into the mix in one of the big states, but a lot of potential picks are actually not all that popular in their home states, and that is unlikely to effect a structural change in the electoral map.

DETAILS

If we look at the map for 2012, a picture of the race emerges clearly.

There are a number of states in the northeast and adjoining the Pacific, where Obama won big in 2008 and still leads comfortably in recent polling. Total electoral votes: 186. The Republicans could take a crack at New Jersey by putting Chris Christie on the ticket, but the man has baggage.

The Republicans have a swath of states in the south and west which went for McCain and still seem solid for Team Red next time. Total votes: 159. Or are they solid? Obama won the under-40 vote in Texas by 10 points in 2008, and did about as well among the young in Georgia and South Carolina. Obama trails Romney by 3 in Georgia, but his worst numbers there are among old folks: if Obama doesn’t take it, the Democrat after him can. Obama’s approvals actually have risen across the south, and he has the black community to draw on. He probably won’t go after TX, SC or GA, but at the very least he needs to help build the party structures in those states to help with congressional races and set the table for the 2016 nominee.

That leaves sixteen states with 193 electoral votes as the battleground. Obama needs 84. They appear in four places:

The Rust Belt, 101 electoral votes: PA OH IN MI MN WI IA MO. The latest polling shows Obama would have slight leads over Romney in all, except PA where Romney actually leads by 1, and Indiana where we don’t have good data (Team Obama expects that to be their weakest state in the region). A new poll has him up by 4 in Ohio. Unions and the auto bailout will be the focus here; dig in hard in Iowa, where the GOP organization will be extensive after the caucuses. Obama is being assisted by a number of Republican governors who are wildly unpopular now because they tried to use their electoral clout to do incredibly destructive things: attacking unions, attacking the minimum wage in Ohio, attacking teachers' benefits, cutting education and Medicaid, blocking university money, giving bureaucrats the power to decertify entire city governments. As of summer 2001 Obama led Romney in WI by 7. Possible VP picks: Santorum, Portman, Daniels, Pence, Pawlenty, Bachmann, and Paul Ryan if they want to double down their bets on that kill-Medicare plan. Does Romney have any pull left in Michigan after saying it’s okay for the automakers to go bankrupt?

There is much more information about the Democratic attack on economic issues, in places such as the Rust Belt, in the link in this sentence.

The Atlantic Coast, 57 electoral votes: VA NC FL. The GOP is fired up to attack Bill Nelson, but the Rick Scott era has been rocky and Scott is widely hated; he demanded that applicants for government assistance take drug tests and pay for them themselves, and imposed restrictions and red tape and legal threats against those registering voters, which the Democrats really need to fight in court. In Florida, Obama's approvals are above 50, he leads a generic opponent by 7, and Medicare will make the GOP push there very difficult. Obama needs to be careful on the Israel issue. There are potential VP candidates here, most of whom have baggage: McDonnell, Cantor, Rubio, Bush, Crist. For Obama, watch the Virginia boys: Webb, Warner, Kaine; Crist?

The Southwest, 31 electoral votes: AZ CO NM NV. Obama leads Romney by a mile in NM, a bit in CO, and trails a bit in the other two, with McCain out of the picture. Latinos, the DREAM Act which Romney criticized, and the papers-please bill which is similar to rules Romney signed. Foreclosures are a big deal in Nevada.

And New Hampshire, 4 EV’s. Obama leads by 1 over Romney.

These numbers were run for Romney, who polls about six points behind Obama nationally. All of the other candidates except Ron Paul are running at least 14-15 points behind Obama, so the electoral map would look very, very blue with anyone else, unless someone like Huntsman or Pawlenty can build up some sort of groundswell with independents. Gingrich is running behind in Georgia, of all places.

Obama's team is also looking to seek new targets, in case their efforts in the Midwest fall short. They may steer more resources into Arizona and Georgia, both of which have large Hispanic populations (Georgia's Latino population has doubled); Nevada and Colorado also figure into the strategy. They see Indiana as a tough get but will try if they think they need it.

Also, local party pols have been given the green light to ask Obama's field chief to bring the national campaign in to help with local races and build the Democratic team at the grassroots level, possibly helping the national campaign in the process as well. It might be a good idea to build for the future in places like Texas, Georgia and South Carolina. In Carolina, Obama polls within the margin of error against every opponent except Romney, and even Romney could be beatable in a state which takes a dim view of Mormons.

Even if Romney is the nominee, remember that Obama looks strong across the country. In summer 2009 he had approvals over 50 percent in 48 states, so people are willing to believe in him. If Obama only keeps the states he won by 9 or more points in 2008, that is still enough to win. Remember that the Republicans have failed to get more than 285 electoral votes in 20 years: the last five elections consisted of two illegal Bush squeakers and three Democratic blowouts, with a fourth Democratic win to come in 2012, since Obama will be running as a successful incumbent terrorist-killer rather than as the scary Muslim Marxist guy.

Some Democratic strategists have begun talking openly about their strategy, and there are no great shocks. They apparently plan to pull out all the stops to hold what they won in 2008, rather than seeking new states, with the possible exception of Arizona. It is easy to see the logic: the places where Obama could have attacked are either small, like Montana and the Dakotas, or unpromising like Missouri, or expensive like Texas, although it could be argued that Georgia is worth a second look. Of course all this could just be a huge head fake, and plans can change as the calendar sails on by and the Republicans pick a nominee.

On the Atlantic coast the Democrats reportedly hope to round up black support to hold onto Virginia, where Obama is still strong, and North Carolina. They plan to attack heavily in the swing states of Ohio, where they expect a hard fight, and Florida; they think Indiana will be tough and they may give up on Missouri. In the southwest they hope to retain Hispanic support; New Mexico and Nevada look good, they will work to hold Colorado, and they have grounds for optimism in Arizona. They said little about the Rust Belt or economic issues, but both are sure to be big factors in their strategy also.

Fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver argues that a southern candidate could wrap up the south quickly for the GOP, and then move north to contest the battleground states in the Rust Belt. But I wonder if they would be better off with a native Rust Belt candidate: the Republicans will probably hold much of the deep south no matter who runs, and a northerner might gain more traction in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Of course it depends on who the northerner is: southern evangelicals are suspicious of Romney, and he might need to do some fence-mending down there before dashing back north.

In any case, the only southern names on the racing form seem to be Gingrich, Cain and Perry. One observer suggested that Romney would ignore the south and focus on the battleground states; ignoring the deep south would be smart because Obama apparently isn’t going to contest it, but Romney must try to flip Virginia, North Carolina and Florida to win.