National trends

SUMMARY

Current polling indicates that only Romney has a prayer of catching up to Obama in the 2012 vote, although someone reassuring like Huntsman or Pawlenty could be marketed to the voters in such a way as to close the gap; finding someone who can go toe-to-toe with Obama in debates, however, will be extremely difficult. The Democrats are already attacking, quite early, doing their best to put the most controversial face on the GOP (earlier it was Rush, now it's Ryan) and marry the Republicans to their most controversial policies. They are cleverly attacking the Republicans on their extreme views, and praising them on their moderate views, both of which hurt Republicans with different sectors of the electorate. In the turnout battle, they are hoping that they can grasp the pendulum which swung their way in 2008 and away from them in 2010, and pull it back in their direction; tea-party disenchantment with the GOP nominee would help. They need to continue to target independents, close the sale with Latinos particularly on the DREAM Act, and remind women of the GOP war on the right to choose.

DETAILS

Polling. Pollsters say that no GOP candidate gets above 50 percent nationally, on the issue of whether they’re qualified to be president. Polling from May 2011 indicated that all of the major GOP prospects have toxic unfavorables except Romney and Pawlenty. Also, pollsters have been measuring Obama against possible GOP candidates, and Obama beats them all. But there has been a clear tier system: three candidates come within 5-8 points of Obama, and then there is a huge gap, and another group of candidates who lose to Obama by 14 to 22 points. The three who came closest are Huckabee, who quit, Paul who will never survive once people look at his record, and Romney whose scores against Obama have been slipping into double digits. Even if they run Romney, it is likely that he will lose as badly as McCain in the 2008 landslide. If they nominate anyone else, they’re looking at a real Reagan-Carter butt-kicking. And almost all this poll data was collected before Obama killed bin Laden.

So far the Democrats are already attacking the Republicans, alternately attacking their conservative policies, which anger general election voters, and praising their more moderate stances, which anger conservative primary voters. They are launching attack ads against Romney and Pawlenty, two candidates they worry about, although personally I think Romney is the one candidate who is more capable of running a smart, professional campaign against Obama. The people they worry about least are Palin and Gingrich.

Over three years, Obama has taken a beating from critics, but potential nominees like Romney have faded from memory a bit, and if they return to the limelight, they will get more scrutiny than they ever have, certainly more than Romney got in his brief 2008 run. When you look at all the Obama-Romney polling over three years, Romney only got close in the second half of 2010, before sliding back. Since then Obama has opened up a lead of 6 points and climbing.

One GOP political expert said "It is likely he will be re-elected”, asserting that the economy isn’t rock enough to beat him. Another GOP player said "Centrist voters and the ones who decide elections are still fundamentally rooting for the guy…People who don't view politics in ideological terms give him the benefit of the doubt, and that is an incredible political asset to have."

Debates. Back in the 2008 campaign, Republican hopefuls saddled up to run for President, and debate. The group included four current or former governors, two current Senators, a former Senator, and three current or former members of the House. And Giuliani, America’s mayor. At that time, Gingrich ridiculed that group as a bunch of pygmies. But compare that 2008 group to the bunch of dwarves who saddled up for the first GOP debate in the spring of 2011: Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum. The debate made Republicans cringe, openly. Was there anyone on that stage who would have a prayer of achieving a debate win against Obama?

Whoever gets the GOP nomination, will have to debate Obama. The same man who wiped out Hillary and McCain in 30 debates (without a teleprompter), demonstrating a mastery of (a) economics and finance, (b) national security and military issues, and (c) social issues. And Obama has learned so much more on the job, as Usama bin Laden could attest. Who do the Republicans have, who can debate head-to-head with Obama in even one of those three topic areas, let alone all three?

Enemies. In 2009 Obama chose to portray Rush as the face of the GOP. Now he’s chosen Paul Ryan the Medicare-killer. Brill. McCain ran an awful campaign in 2008; don’t count on the next Republican to make the same mistakes, although they could always make new ones.

Turnout. The Obama Warriors of 2008 stayed home in 2010, disappointed with his centrism: he’s got to get them out again. The GOP may have trouble rounding up the teabaggers who won them the House in 2010: they’re angry that Boehner didn’t actually give them the government shutdown, the war on Planned Parenthood, and all the other stuff they expected. After the budget deal, some teabaggers said "Our war now is with the Republican Party; we need to send home a whole boatload of RINOs." A lot of them are also angry, obviously, about their attack on Medicare. And they will be even angrier if they “lose” the debt ceiling war. Off on a RINO hunt! So which nominee could ensure tea-party turnout? Bachmann, Palin, and who else? They seem to find Pawlenty completely resistible. Watch the polls which measure the "enthusiasm gap".The true crux of the problem is that the Republicans need someone who will inspire the fiscal conservative donors to spend, and inspire the tea party to organize and vote at 2010 levels.

Latinos. The GOP is ripe for a beating on this issue, if the Democrats handle it right. To wit: Lindsey Graham screeches at Obama for not moving on immigration. Obama moves on immigration. Graham then criticizes Obama’s “cynical ploy” and the GOP blocks the plan. Durbin introduces the DREAM Act which actually has bipartisan support in the House. Lugar, formerly a DREAM supporter, ran away from it with a lame excuse, arguing that Obama’s making it a partisan issue, since Lugar could be primaried. Instead of supporting DREAM, the GOP is supporting papers-please (an idea wich is spreading to Alabama to included checking the papers of students and parents), when they’re not smearing Sonya Sotomayor.

Obama still only has 57 percent support among Hispanics. After leaning hard on illegal immigrants, Obama is now shifting his focus to employers who hire illegals, which Latinos should like. He also picked a Latina as political director for his reelection campaign: Katherine Archuleta, the first Latina to hold the position on a major presidential campaign. She will be responsible for outreach to elected officials and groups. One thing to watch out for: if the GOP nominates Perry, remember that he signed a DREAM-like bill in Texas.

Independents. America’s “center” went for Obama by a staggering 20 points, and he held them even after the election: they like the Democrats on almost all issues. They are social liberals, fiscal conservatives. Stress the GOP’s preference for culture wars over jobs. Romney has powerful pull among independents, though, which is a key reason why he polls well against Obama.

Women. Obama needs to exploit the GOP’s war on women. The evangelicals are still fighting to take away a woman’s right to choose, in jurisdictions across the country. Moms are struggling to keep their families going in a deepening recession, and fighting battles against the evangelicals on book banning, intelligent design, contraception, HPV shots, sex education, and other educational issues; lesbians are fighting the one-man-one-woman battle. And the United States is the only developed country in the world that has not ratified the CEDAW treaty on discrimination against women. Obama could do an entire aria just on the GOP war against Planned Parenthood, the cancer screenings, the works.

Other groups. In addition to the lawyers and union workers whom the Republicans have alienated, the GOP is now losing doctors. And that suggests they're losing other medical professsionals who don't make a physician's salary. However Obama still has trouble holding seniors (44 percent approval), some of whom were wooed by the tea party and haven't yet figured out that the same Republicans they elected are trying to take away their health care.