NEW TRENDS
Here’s a new piece on what can only be described as a concerted Republican effort to subvert and destroy the entire democratic process itself.
Here’s a new piece about, no kidding, the 1912 presidential race. A hundred years ago, America saw a presidential race amazingly like the current one, wherein the GOP split into a country-club faction and a grass-roots populist faction, and almost destroyed the party in the process.
Here is a link to the New Hampshire primary polling which shows Romney with a commanding lead over all comers in next winter's primary.
SUMMARY OF THE RACE
The Republican party is now at war with itself. In one corner, the establishment fiscal conservatives rooted in Wall Street and corporate America; in the other corner, an alliance of evangelicals and tea-party small-government activists. These two groups are jockeying to see which group can unite more quickly behind a presidential nominee and master the money game. The Republican party is also running dry of original policy ideas.
We have quick political snapshots of:
- Mitt Romney, whose frontrunner status is threatened not only by his Massachusetts health-care plan but also his considerable series of flipflops on national issues; the tea party hates him and the Democrats are already targeting him
- Tim Pawlenty, who has failed to catch fire with either the tea party or the party establishment, despite energetic (and transparent) efforts to transform himself from a flipflopping moderate to tough-talking, southern-accented “truth”-teller
- Jon Huntsman, who seems to be too sensible and moderate to catch on with the GOP
- Newt Gingrich, who is enthusiastic on the attack but rather laughable when he is challenged on his own crimes and follies, and has a long track record of poor leadership and poor judgment.
- Michele Bachmann, whose entire career is based on Emily-Litella-like holy wars based on issues which she profoundly misunderstands.
- Sarah Palin, who has so many different kinds of baggage that only an incredible triumph of ego over realism could impel her into the race
- Candidates who are having serious trouble getting traction: Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Herman Cain
- Candidates who are being wooed for a run, who all have serious baggage back home: Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani
- Candidates who declined to run: Donald Trump, Mitch Daniels and Mike Huckabee
Next, the politics. The Republicans have a weak field; during the primary season, with tea party candidates focusing more on Iowa while establishment candidates look to New Hampshire, Nikki Haley and the South Carolina primary could be critical. A new rule change in the primary system could make the primary race last well into the spring.
Since the Republicans are split by internal conflict and weak on ideas and leaders, they will rely on their stand-by tools, political tactics: attacking Obama no matter what he does, ”working the refs” by complaining about anything the Democrats do, the race issue, vote suppression, violence and the threat thereof, outright lies, and obstruction and harassment on Capitol Hill.
The fate of the Democrats will depend heavily on whether they’re ready to come out and really fight. Obama will work to hold most of the states he won in 2008, focusing on key trends such as the battle to win over independents, Latinos and women, the battle to control the political center which the Republicans seem to be abandoning, and the battle to ride the Medicare issue all the way to the restoration of Speaker Pelosi in Congress. They will also seek to retain the upper hand on the money issue.
The Democrats are planning a broad-based attack on economic issues, beginning with a focus on the resurrection of the auto industry, and a heavy attack against the Republicans on health care, Medicare and budget issues: they are particularly angry that the GOP regained the House in 2010 by lying about which party was really trying to attack Medicare, and they want revenge. They are also pushing back on the notion that all government is evil. They will target independents who disagree with the Republicans on social issues and particularly a woman’s right to choose. They are taking the offensive on national security issues, having won the Usama bin Laden battle both on style, since Obama handled the aftermath of the bin Laden operation much better than the Republicans did, and on substance, since both Obama and Clinton outperformed the Republicans and raised the issue of whether the Republicans are actually credible on national security anymore. They are making a bit of hay on the birther issue, the racial aspects thereof, the possible ramifications for the Republicans, and the next conspiracy theory from the GOP – the notion that Obama is responsible for 911.
Finally we will reexamine why all of this matters: the behavior of the Republicans during the Bush era, the Republicans who followed Bush, the actions of the 2011 Republicans, the Republican war against key constituencies in America, and the prospect of what the Republicans could do if they return to unfettered power in 2012. And we will also review Obama’s record of performance.
